Aral Sea Bed Has Released 748 Million Tons of CO2
The drying of the former inland lake has turned a carbon sink into a significant source of atmospheric emissions.
Updated on Sept. 28, 2026 in Environmental
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Researchers have published a study showing that the Aral Sea emitted 748 million metric tons of carbon dioxide between 1960 and 2022. This research-stage finding highlights how the lake's desiccation, driven by agricultural water diversion, created a massive, unintended carbon source.
Why it matters
The study reveals that drying lake beds can serve as major, overlooked contributors to global carbon emissions. Understanding this mechanism is vital as large inland bodies of water continue to shrink due to human activity and climate change.
The analysis measured a total of 605 million metric tons of carbon remaining in the basin, with potential carbon credit valuations reaching $18 billion. Sediment cores taken up to 50 centimeters deep during a 2022 expedition allowed researchers to reconstruct historical emission cycles.
The players
Science
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The details
The carbon release is triggered when the lake's exposure to air causes stored organic matter to oxidize. Researchers used sediment cores — vertical samples of lake-bottom material — to analyze carbon content across a timeline of exposure. The study found that wind-blown sediment accounts for nearly one-fifth of the total emissions, with approximately half of the CO2 released within the first 15 years after the lake bed is exposed.
Timeline
1960-2022: Period of cumulative carbon emissions analyzed.
2022: Field expedition conducted to collect sediment cores.
September 28, 2026: Study published in the journal Science.
2027: Planned research expedition utilizing larger drilling equipment.
The Tech Race
This study establishes a new benchmark for measuring atmospheric carbon impacts from drying inland waters. It positions the Aral Sea as a case study for evaluating the carbon risk associated with the Caspian Sea's projected shrinkage.
The findings underscore the significant environmental value of preserving remaining water levels, with researchers estimating the sequestered carbon could be worth $18 billion in credits. This data provides a new framework for carbon management strategies in regions experiencing similar lake depletion.
The takeaway
The transformation of the Aral Sea from a massive water reservoir to a carbon source demonstrates that land-management choices have profound atmospheric consequences. Readers should watch for the results of the upcoming 2027 field expedition to see how updated drilling data refines the current 605-million-ton estimate.
What happens next
Researchers are scheduled to return to the Aral Sea in 2027 to conduct more extensive sediment sampling using larger drilling equipment, which will provide higher-resolution data on the remaining carbon pool.
Further reading
For broader context on how ecosystems are changing globally, visit Environmental.
Source note: This article includes information reported by ZME Science.
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