Global Notebook Shipments Will Decline in 2027
Rising component costs for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs will likely force price increases and contraction in total units shipped.
Updated on Oct. 8, 2026 in Computers
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Market analysts at TrendForce project a low-single-digit decline in global notebook shipments for 2027. This forecast follows a period where manufacturers faced intense margin pressure from the rising cost of core hardware components.
Why it matters
Higher costs for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs are forcing brands to choose between absorbing expenses, reducing specifications, or raising prices for consumers. Furthermore, the allocation of advanced-process capacity to AI server production is actively limiting supply growth for PC-grade DRAM.
Core components including CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs now represent 68% of the total bill of materials for a US$900 mainstream notebook. Supply chain shifts indicate that production share outside China, which sat at 21% in 2026, could drop below 20% in 2027 as brands prioritize operational efficiency.
The players
TrendForce
A global market intelligence provider that tracks component pricing, supply chain shifts, and semiconductor production capacities.
The details
Manufacturers are contending with a bottleneck where AI server applications consume the majority of advanced-process capacity, squeezing available supply for PC-grade DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory — the high-speed volatile memory used for active computing tasks). When component costs spike, brands face limited options: they must either absorb the cost, lower the device's technical specifications, or pass the price increase to the buyer. This cost volatility incentivizes firms to move production capacity back to China to leverage existing infrastructure and lower operational costs.
Timeline
2025: Global notebook production share outside China was 24%.
2026: Global notebook production share outside China is 21%.
Q3 2026: Core components accounted for 68% of bill of materials costs.
2027: Global notebook shipments projected to decline.
H2 2027: NAND Flash supply constraints could potentially ease.
The Tech Race
This projection suggests a contraction in the trend of geographic manufacturing diversification that accelerated through 2025. The shift mirrors a broader competitive struggle as brands attempt to protect margins against the hardware cost parity currently skewed by AI server dominance.
Consumers should expect a potential rise in retail prices for laptops throughout 2027 as manufacturers struggle with high component input costs. If shipment contraction reaches the predicted high single digits, buyers may also see fewer mid-range hardware options available on the market.
The takeaway
The notebook market is entering a cycle of cost-driven consolidation where production efficiency will take precedence over geographic diversification. Watch for retail price movements and inventory availability throughout 2027 as indicators of whether these supply chain pressures fully manifest in the consumer market.
Further reading
For broader trends regarding the hardware industry, visit the Computers section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by InfotechLead.
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