Critical Minerals to Shift Toward Renewables at COP31
Researchers say defence demand is competing with energy use of lithium, cobalt and rare earths ahead of COP31 in November 2026.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Energy
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Researchers at the Institute of Development Studies urged that critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths be prioritised for renewable energy rather than defence systems, ahead of COP31 in Türkiye from 9 to 20 November. The research is a forecast and advocacy position based on International Energy Agency data, not an enacted policy.
Why it matters
The Transition Security Project analysis found only 29% of copper, 17% of nickel and 20% of rare earths were used in energy technologies in 2024, with demand from defence and other sectors such as AI rising amid geopolitical rivalry and rearmament. The researchers argue minerals must be steered toward renewables if climate goals are to be met.
Researchers estimated sector shares by analysing International Energy Agency data, finding energy technologies took 29% of copper, 17% of nickel and 20% of rare earths in 2024. Drones need all 36 rare minerals used in strategic technologies, while solar panels and wind turbines each need around a dozen of them.
The players
Institute of Development Studies
A UK-based research institute whose researchers, including Anabel Marin and Phil Johnstone, authored the Transition Security Project analysis of critical-mineral use.
International Energy Agency
The intergovernmental energy body whose data the researchers used to estimate how critical minerals are consumed across sectors.
The details
Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths are key inputs for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries. The Institute of Development Studies researchers analysed International Energy Agency data to estimate how much of each mineral goes to each sector. Their finding is that defence demand is growing quickly and competing with the energy transition for the same supply.
Timeline
2024: Energy-technology share of copper, nickel and rare earths measured.
9 to 20 November 2026: COP31 held in Türkiye.
2035: Target for a 35% global electrification rate.
2050: Net Zero Emissions target deadline.
The Tech Race
The analysis sits within a competition over critical-mineral supply between defence, AI and clean-energy buyers. China's overseas renewable projects, tracked quarterly by the IDS and the International Institute of Green Finance, show how that competition is playing out across regions.
If minerals are steered toward energy, the cost and availability of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles could be affected over time. Availability for consumers depends on policy outcomes not yet decided.
The takeaway
Watch whether COP31 produces any commitment on allocating critical minerals between defence and energy uses. Track the 35% global electrification rate target for 2035 as the measurable benchmark of progress.
What happens next
COP31 convenes in Türkiye from 9 to 20 November 2026, where critical-mineral priorities and the 35% electrification goal for 2035 are expected to be debated.
Further reading
For context on how these supply pressures shape the transition, see our Energy coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Institute of Development Studies.
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