Emerging Economies Match Advanced Renewable Growth
The IEA projects 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity through 2031, though grid backlogs remain a constraint.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Energy
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The International Energy Agency's annual renewable energy outlook forecasts almost 4,800 GW of global renewable capacity additions between 2026 and 2031. The forecast is a projection from the agency's report, not an installed capacity result.
Why it matters
Emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add renewable capacity roughly matching advanced economies for the first time, driven by an energy crisis in which gas and oil prices have soared in 2026 amid the US-Iran war disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The forecast is a projection, not a measured outcome, and it projects 4,800 GW of additions for 2026 to 2031. Grid connection projects awaiting connection worldwide rose 60% over the past year and now equal four times the wind and solar capacity connected in the same period, a bottleneck the outlook must contend with.
The players
International Energy Agency
An intergovernmental energy body that publishes annual market analyses and forecasts, including its renewable energy outlook.
China
The largest contributor to global renewable growth, forecast to add around 2,550 GW of renewable capacity through 2031.
India
The world's second-fastest deployer of renewable energy, forecast to hold 8.5% of global renewable growth by 2031.
The details
Renewable capacity is measured in gigawatts (GW), a unit of installed generating capacity, so 4,800 GW is the rated output of all new wind, solar and other renewable plants the agency expects to be built. The outlook's growth depends on grid connection: a utility must link new generators to the transmission network before they can sell power, and the backlog of projects waiting for that link has grown sharply. The IEA also raised its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report, and higher fuel-blending mandates were introduced, which require a share of transport fuel to come from renewable sources.
Timeline
2025: China's share of global renewable growth reached 60%.
2026: Gas and oil prices soared amid the US-Iran war.
2026 to 2031: Global renewable capacity forecast to grow by 4,800 GW.
2031: China's share of global growth is forecast to fall to 53%.
The Tech Race
China's 60% share of global renewable growth in 2025 sets the benchmark against which the IEA now projects a decline to 53% by 2031. The shift reflects emerging economies adding capacity at a pace the agency expects to match advanced economies for the first time.
Households and businesses in emerging economies may see renewable generation expand as capacity is built, though the timeline for this is not specified in the outlook. Grid connection delays mean new projects may take longer to deliver power to users than their construction schedules suggest.
The takeaway
Watch whether the projected fall in China's share to 53% by 2031 materializes as emerging economies add capacity. Track the grid connection backlog, which rose 60% over the past year, as the clearest near-term signal of whether the forecast additions reach the grid.
Further reading
For broader context on how power generation is changing, explore the Energy section.
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