Power Prices Face 46% Rise by 2035
Analysts project U.S. load growth of 3% and a policy shift toward permitting reform after the 2026 mid-term elections.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Data Centers
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Analysts at Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie project that U.S. oil and gas production will continue its current trajectory after Democrats gained House control in the 2026 mid-term elections. The development is an analytical projection, not an enacted policy change, and no new production capability has shipped or been announced.
Why it matters
A Democratic-controlled House can block further repeals of solar and wind tax credits, but cannot restore credits already removed without bipartisan Senate support, and any new renewable subsidies face a likely presidential veto. Because federal mandates on data-center power costs face legal and political resistance, state governments are positioned to set cost-allocation policy for data centers instead.
Wood Mackenzie's base case projects a 46% rise in wholesale power prices and 3% U.S. load growth between 2026 and 2035, both figures drawn from analyst modeling rather than measured outcomes. The projections do not account for a specific data-center demand scenario, and the source does not state the sensitivity of the price forecast to permitting or policy changes.
The players
Rystad Energy
An energy research and consultancy firm that publishes analysis of oil and gas markets and production outlooks.
Wood Mackenzie
A global energy research and consultancy firm whose base-case modeling projects U.S. power prices and load growth through 2035.
Donald Trump
The current President of the United States, who retains veto authority over legislation that Congress passes.
The details
The projections rest on how the new House majority's authority interacts with the Senate and the White House. Congress can pass resolutions, hold back war funding, and delay confirmations, but the presidential veto over legislation means that new subsidy credits for solar and wind are unlikely to become law. Wood Mackenzie identifies permitting reform as the most likely route to faster approvals for gas pipelines, transmission lines, and wind projects, since it can move independently of tax-credit fights.
Timeline
November 4, 2026: Mid-term elections give Democrats control of the House.
Before January 3, 2027: The lame-duck session is the most consequential near-term window for Congress.
2026 to 2035: Projected period for U.S. load growth and wholesale power price increases.
The Tech Race
Wood Mackenzie's base-case forecast of a 46% rise in wholesale power prices by 2035 frames the policy contest over data-center power costs. The forecast positions permitting reform and state-level cost allocation as the main levers, rather than federal tax-credit policy.
Electricity customers in states with rising data-center load could face higher wholesale power costs if the projected 46% price increase materializes through 2035. Final cost-allocation rules for data centers will likely be set at the state level, not by federal mandate.
The takeaway
Watch whether permitting reform advances during the lame-duck session before January 3, since it is the route analysts identify as most likely to speed gas, transmission, and wind approvals. Track whether state governments adopt data-center cost-allocation rules, because federal mandates face resistance.
What happens next
The lame-duck session of Congress ends before January 3, 2027, and is the next defined window in which the incoming Democratic majority's position on energy policy will take shape.
Further reading
For context on how power demand from data centers is shaping energy policy, see the coverage in this section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Midland Reporter-Telegram.
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