Data Center Capacity Slips a Year in U.S.

Morgan Stanley's forecast postpones about 5 GW of planned U.S. capacity to 2029, a delay it characterizes as timing rather than cancellation.

Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Data Centers

Data Center Capacity Slips a Year in U.S.

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Morgan Stanley expects operators to bring about 5 GW of planned U.S. data center IT capacity online in 2029 instead of 2028, a postponement rather than a cancellation, according to its Nov. 8, 2026 outlook. The change is attributed to election-related changes and is a forecast, not a completed shift.

Why it matters

The delays shift when AI infrastructure arrives rather than whether it does, since Morgan Stanley's total AI capital-spending forecasts remain intact. Projects already under construction will not be interrupted, which keeps near-term buildout on track even as later timelines slide.

The forecast is an analyst estimate, with delayed U.S. additions shifting from 24.9 GW to 19.9 GW in 2028 and rising from 22.7 GW to 27.6 GW in 2029. Global 2028 capacity was lowered to 219 GW from 224 GW, and the source does not say how firm these revisions will prove.

The players

Morgan Stanley

A global investment bank whose analysts track data center buildout and AI capital spending across the semiconductor and infrastructure sectors.

The details

Morgan Stanley attributes the shift to election-related changes that affect construction timing rather than its view of AI demand. The delayed capacity is concentrated in Texas and Ohio, and the firm's 2027 U.S. capacity forecast is unchanged. Under the revised outlook, the total volume of additions is reshuffled across years rather than removed.

Nov. 6, 2026: Median semiconductor stock covered by Morgan Stanley was 53% below its 52-week high.
Nov. 8, 2026: Morgan Stanley publishes its outlook on delayed capacity.
2028: Original expected year for the 5 GW of capacity to come online.
2029: Revised expected year for the 5 GW of capacity to come online.

The Tech Race

Morgan Stanley's revision moves roughly 5 GW of U.S. data center additions from its prior 2028 forecast into 2029, updating its own earlier figures of 24.9 GW and 22.7 GW. The analysis places the delay as a timing adjustment within an AI buildout whose total capital-spending outlook the firm says remains intact.

For most people the shift changes when new data center capacity comes online rather than the services they use today, since projects under construction will continue. The delay is concentrated in Texas and Ohio, so communities hosting those projects will see the timing change first.

The takeaway

Watch whether the 5 GW of capacity actually lands in 2029 and whether Morgan Stanley's 2027 capacity forecast holds as construction schedules are tracked. Those next filings will show if the postponement stays a timing adjustment or grows.