California Cuts Plastic Baseline 20% in Provisional Count

Only half of member company data was included, so producers' first 10% cut could shift as the baseline is updated through 2030.

Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Environmental

Isometric editorial illustration of a compressed bale of clear plastic film on a concrete slab, with dry golden hills on the horizon. — California regulators adopted a provisional 1.03 million ton baseline for single-use plastic under Senate Bill 54, 20% below the industry's June estimate, based on only half of member company reports. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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California's waste regulator, CalRecycle, adopted a 1.03 million ton baseline for single-use plastic production and sales under Senate Bill 54, a figure 20% below the industry's June estimate. The baseline is a regulatory measurement now in effect, not a finished or verified count, since it relies on reporting from only half of the Circular Action Alliance's member companies.

Why it matters

The baseline sets the starting point against which California's required reductions are measured, so its size determines how much plastic producers must cut. The lower figure reflects incomplete reporting and inaccurate submissions rather than a verified drop in production.

The adopted figure uses the industry's latest reporting, which covers 222 billion single-use plastic components produced, sold or distributed in 2023. Under the new numbers, the estimated HDPE recycling rate rises from 19% to 53%, but the report draws on only half of the alliance's member data, so the baseline remains provisional.

The players

CalRecycle

California's state recycling and waste agency, which adopted the single-use plastic baseline and will update it annually through 2030.

Circular Action Alliance

The industry organization that writes the plastic compliance plan, reports producers' data to the state, and sets member fees.

Gavin Newsom

California's governor, who signed Senate Bill 54 into law in 2022.

The details

Senate Bill 54, signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2022, requires plastic producers to reduce single-use plastic sold in the state. The Circular Action Alliance writes the industry compliance plan, reports producers' data to the state and sets member recycling and reduction fees, and the baseline is the reference amount from which percentage reductions are calculated. Under the adopted baseline, producers must cut 100,000 tons at the first target instead of 290,000 tons, and by 2032 they must reduce sales by 25%.

2022: Gov. Newsom signed Senate Bill 54 into law.
2023: Reference year for single-use plastic production and sales used in the baseline.
June: Industry announced its initial baseline estimate of 1.29 million tons.
January 1: The first reduction target of 10% begins.
2032: Producers must cut single-use plastic sold in California by 25%.

The Tech Race

Senate Bill 54 sets a reduction framework that depends on accurate producer reporting, which is why the baseline's incomplete data matters for the law's enforcement. Whether California's measurement approach becomes a template for other states' plastic policies will depend on how the annual baseline updates through 2030.

Producers covered by the law will face the first 10% reduction target starting January 1, with a required cut of 100,000 tons. The timeline for how the baseline revisions will affect individual product categories has not been announced.

The takeaway

The baseline is the number that determines how much plastic producers must cut, so its revision over the next several years will reveal whether the reporting gaps close. Watch the January 1 first-target date and each annual CalRecycle baseline update through 2030.